Lakers Draft Special
Pick 22, Trade Up or Down, Second Round Buys, and More!
With the Lakers sitting at pick 22 (for now), let’s look at which prospects could potentially be on the board by then.
But, first let’s eliminate the players who, with upmost certainty, will be gone before the Lakers’ pick. In order to eliminate names, we have to look at who was invited to the NBA Draft Green Room.
With 21 prospects mentioned here, it is all but certain that every name from Cade Cunningham to Josh Giddey will not be available at 22. Jalen Johnson has been slipping on many mocks. I think it’s unlikely he falls that far, but it’s becoming a possibility that would not totally shock me. Kai Jones and Corey Kispert could slip to 22, but I also think that’s unlikely.
While being invited to the Green Room does not necessarily guarantee a top-20 pick (we saw Bol Bol slip to late in the second round), it does mean there is a good chance all of these guys are gone before pick 22. Of the names mentioned, I think Cam Thomas, Isaiah Jackson, and Ziaire Williams are the likeliest to slip to 22nd overall. But, who knows.
On a side note, there have been rumors about the Lakers looking to trade up or down. Given the nature of this time of year, leaks happen as negotiating ploys from teams or agents. Shams Charania has reported about the Lakers inquiring about a trade for Kyle Lowry and have discussed a trade for Buddy Hield involving Kyle Kuzma. This could include trading the pick and not receiving one in return.
For now, let’s assume the Lakers stay at 22 and I’ll discuss trade-up-or-down scenarios later.
Now, here is my big board for the 2021 NBA Draft:
This big board is just a general one. A Lakers big board would look slightly different because fit matters especially with prospects in the same tier. Players do not exist in a vacuum and will shine in some situations more than others.
I’m going to list the top 5 guys who will likely be available and would be the best fits for the Lakers. Ziaire Williams, Usman Garuba, and possibly Keon Johnson are all guys who might slip and are prospects I quite like. I doubt they will be available though. I also like Trey Murphy, who’s a popular pick by fans. I just like these other 5 guys better for LAL and think are more realistic.
Without further ado, here is my ranking for the top prospects who would likely be available for the purple and gold:
1. Jaden Springer (G, Tennessee, 6’3”, 6’7.5” WS, 19)
I’ve seen Springer as high as 4 on some draft nicks' big boards. While I am not quite that high on him, I do think he could be a home-run selection at 22, especially considering I have him 9th.
Let’s first get the negatives out of the way. His first step is pretty average. He struggles to separate from his defender. Combine that with a jarring shooting motion, it makes it tough for him to create clean shots off the dribble, which is key for a lead guard. His handle is also not the tightest.
However, Springer is built like a Rottweiler and has incredible body control. His strong frame and fantastic core balance combined with a 40-inch vertical make it easy for him to finish through contact at the rim. He’s a more explosive athlete than he’s given credit for. Also, he did shoot 43.5% from 3 on only 1.8 attempts per game, but he did shoot 81% from the line on 4 attempts per game, a good indicator and building block going forward.
Springer makes mostly good reads, but not special like Cunningham or Giddey. Overall, I’d look at Malcolm Brogdon offensively. His shot mechanics are wonky but he overall shoots a good percentage from distance. His strong frame allows him to get into the lane and finish. Springer will only be 19 years old next season. He still has a lot of time to work on his jumper and handle. His feel for the game and body control give me confidence his fundamentals will catch up over time.
Most importantly, Springer’s specialness comes on the defensive end. The Vogel-era Lakers have had physically imposing guards like Alex Caruso, Avery Bradley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and even Talen Horton-Tucker. Springer will smother ball-handlers, jump passing lanes, and even fly in for weak-side blocks. He even defends bigger players well inside a la Josh Hart, using his strong frame and great leverage. Springer is also an elite charge-taker. He does lots of Kyle Lowry little things (no, I’m not saying he’ll be as good as Lowry).
All in all, Jaden Springer is exactly the type of prospect the Lakers are looking for. Initially, he’ll be a good depth piece over the 82-game season where injuries or COVID could keep players out. He probably won’t see playoff rotation minutes, but I don’t see that from any of these other guys in Year 1. Overall, you bet on the depth piece who’s a scheme fit and has upside to develop over time. He and THT would be a solid young duo going forward.
2. Jared Butler (G, Baylor, 6’3”, 6’4” WS, 21)
Butler just got cleared to play for a possible heart issue. He might slip because of that, but I am not a doctor with no medical intel on him, so I’m going to assume he’s good to go until proven otherwise.
This dude is an absolute dog despite his smaller stature. He and Davion Mitchell were a devastating duo for the national champions. Butler may struggle against switches and can probably only defend 1s and 2s, but he’s tenacious fighting through screens and makes incredible rotations.
Butler is undersized and will probably have struggles finishing at the rim, but he is crafty and smart. He has great feel for the game. And to top it off, he’s a 50% C&S guy from 3 who can also make shots off the dribble and from way behind the line. He is one of the top shooters in this draft and an excellent 2-way fit the Lakers could use.
I prefer Springer because of his size and athleticism on both ends which gives him more versatility. I also think Springer’s ceiling is clearly higher.
You can sense a trend of what type of player I value for the Lakers: a tough combo guard with excellent feel who can defend at a high level.
3. Miles “Deuce” McBride (G, West Virginia, 6’2”, 6’9” WS, 21)
Remember how Avery Bradley set the tone for the 2020 Lakers’ defense? Deuce McBride is that type of MFer. His wingspan and incredible tenaciousness make him a vicious defender at the point of attack. He is also a solid help-side rotator and loves jumping passing lanes (1.9 steals per game). He can gamble a little bit too much, but creating turnovers leads to transition which gets easy buckets. He will thrive in the Lakers’ scrambling defense.
Offensively, he upped his 3P% and FT% from 30.4% to 41.4% and 74.7% to 81.3% in his sophomore season compared to his freshman season respectively. He’s not quite a high volume 3-point shooter yet and settles a little too much for the mid-range pull-up. But, these are good indicators for him becoming a solid shooter both on the catch and off the dribble. To use an extreme example, we saw that with Jayson Tatum at Duke and then his first year in Boston. With the right coaching and work ethic, Deuce can make a slightly similar transition.
McBride isn’t a great finisher yet, but given his frame, wingspan, and touch, I think there is more potential there.
Deuce being West Virginia’s whole offense, shooting good percentages on mostly off-the-dribble jumpers, and still having energy to be an elite defender is incredible. It’s very close between him and Jared Butler for me. I lean Butler because of his shooting and feel for the game, but it’s a coin flip. I’d be happy to have either.
4. Sharife Cooper (G, Auburn, 6’1”, N/A WS, 20)
The two best passers in this draft are Josh Giddey and Sharife Cooper, who averaged a 8.1 assists in his 12 games at Auburn. So much of his dribble-drive game and playmaking is eerily similar to Trae Young. He’s not quite the athlete Trae is and struggled finishing around the rim, but he showed a lot of creativity. His ceiling is possibly a starting lead guard on a playoff team who could lead the league in assists.
The two big concerns with Sharife are his jumper and his defense. The latter is due to his small frame, again like Trae Young. The former is because he shot only 22.8% from 3 and had an awkward backwards lean in his form.
However, he may have fixed the lean as seen below:
Cooper shot 82.5% on a whopping 8.6 free throw attempts per game. This is encouraging going forward as both a shooter and finisher because it shows good touch. It also shows he is a master at using his frame to draw contact and get easy buckets at the line, again like Trae Young. Hopefully, he can also add a consistent floater to his arsenal which is key against drop coverages.
Sharife gets a lot of comparisons to Rajon Rondo and I get it to some degree. I will say he makes sense filling that Rondo/Schröder role long term. I have him 4th because of fit and how much I value shooting and defense for this pick, but again it’s very close with these guys so I’m nitpicking with these rankings.
5. Josh Christopher (G, Arizona St., 6'3”, 6’9” WS, 19)
Christopher is 5th here because he has the lowest floor. The best word to describe him is inconsistent. He’s a 30.5% shooter from 3, but had games where he’d get red hot. He averaged 1.4 assists per game, but showed lead guard skills here and there. He averaged 1.5 steals and 0.5 blocks with explosive highlights but would also lack focus and fall asleep.
His ceiling is clearly special. By his own admission, he played out of position at ASU which could have led to the inconsistencies. It is easy to envision him becoming this dynamic off-the-dribble playmaker who can shoot, attack the rim, and kick to the open man while having incredible defensive plays.
What he lacks is feel for the game which is okay for a 19-year-old. He still has a ton of room to grow. A good development staff could get a lot out of him. Picking Christopher will come down to draft philosophy and how much you believe in your developmental infrastructure and how confident you are in him reaching that hypothetical, arbitrary ceiling.
With the Lakers in the championship-or-bust window, it makes sense to get someone who can contribute more right away while having some upside like the guys mentioned above. Christopher or even Ziaire Williams would be a gamble, but not gambles I’m against if the Lakers flood their rotation with vets and groom their rookie in the G-League.
Who Will the Lakers Pick?
That is tough to say. Jonathan Givony and Kevin O’Connor both have the Lakers picking Jared Butler at 22 in their most recent mocks. Other than Talen Horton-Tucker, every Lakers draft pick in recent years have attended the team’s workouts (Rob Pelinka attended his Klutch workout though).
Chris Duarte, Isaiah Todd, Jaden Springer, Josh Christopher, Miles McBride, and Trey Murphy are all key names who have worked out with the team. Sam Vecenie mentioned a while ago on his podcast that Jaden Springer really impressed teams in his workouts. It is rumored that the Lakers gave Chris Duarte a promise that they’ll pick him if he falls to them. There is also Ayo Dosunmu who also worked out for LAL….
I have no idea whether to believe this report. I don’t have Dosunmu as a first-round talent in this draft, but he wouldn’t be a bad fit as a do-everything backup point guard even if he doesn’t excel at any one aspect. Agents and teams leak stuff to drive up leverage. Ayo was also not invited to the Green Room. We’ll just have to wait and see.
If the Lakers stay at 22, I predict they take Jaden Springer or Miles McBride. They worked out for the team and make a lot of sense. I can see Josh Christopher who is an LA native and grew up idolizing Kobe. Additionally, I’m confident Duarte is gone before 22…
…which leads into what happens if the Lakers trade up. Personally, I think it’s more likely they stay put. But if they move up, I think it’s for Chris Duarte who is one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the draft. He can shoot at a high level both off the catch and off the dribble. He’s a competent defender and athlete who can hold his own.
However, if the Lakers trade up into the mid-teens, which they reportedly tried with the Pacers at 13, that makes things very interesting. I still think Duarte is a strong possibility because the Warriors (14), Wizards (15) (if Bradley Beal stays), Pelicans (17), Knicks (19,21), and Hawks (20) are all looking to win now. Corey Kispert is also in the same vein as Duarte as a high volume, accurate shooter who is a target for win-now teams and also worked out for the Lakers.
But, there is also a strong possibility that Moses Moody and Kai Jones, Klutch clients, are on the board there as well. I have Moody 5th and Jones 12th on my personal board.
The former’s floor is a 3-D wing and his ceiling is a more athletic Khris Middleton. I love Moody. He’s an excellent fit on this roster. If he’s available, he’s too good to pass up.
Jones is a bit of a boom-or-bust prospect, but can also be a version of Javale McGee, a member of the 2020 Lakers championship team. His ceiling can be even much more with him flashing shooting potential and monstrous 2-way sequences. Potentially, he and Anthony Davis could be a devastating frontcourt.
Like Kai Jones, the Lakers could also go Isaiah Jackson. He’s a super athletic big with solid 2-way potential as a rim-runner and shot-blocker.
Jackson has also flashed some shooting ability and shot creation but it’s very raw. He fouls a lot and has a lot of erraticism to his game. He’s a bit undersized and doesn’t have the best feel. I prefer the other guys mentioned, but he fits the Javale McGee/Dwight Howard mold which wouldn’t make him a bad pick. I just think it’s a reach if they trade up.
Another name I can see the Lakers moving up for is Klutch client Jalen Johnson, although his stock is falling. He’s 6’7” with a rigid shooting motion and only attempted 18 3s in 13 games, but made 8 of them. He’s only a 63% free throw shooter and not much of a shot creator off the dribble. Defensively, he struggles versus smaller players. He’s probably an undersized 4 initially in need of refinement. But, he thrives in transition and is a solid passer. He could be someone the Lakers take at 22 or even trade down to select.
Speaking of trading down, the Lakers could still select someone like Springer, Butler, McBride, Christopher, or even Murphy who makes a lot of sense as a traditional 3-D wing at 6’9” with a 7-foot wingspan. Isaiah Todd as both a stretch and rim-rolling big makes a lot of sense especially if Montrezl Harrell is gone.
Overall, if the Lakers trade down a few spots, I think they feel confident they’ll pick the guy or one of the guys they wanted at 22.
Second Round Buys?
The Lakers have a history of buying second round picks with Talen Horton-Tucker and Jordan Clarkson. I have no idea if they will buy a pick, but it’s certainly possible. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (23rd on my board) is likely to be available in the second and would be an excellent fit. He is like every other Villanova guy: tough and smart. He has shown stretch 4 capabilities and is a very high IQ positional defender despite his average athleticism. Na’Shon “Bones” Hyland is also a guy I’d love to get as a dynamic shooter and bench scorer. Kessler Edwards as a 3-D wing and Brandon Boston as a scoring wing would be solid value options.
Conclusion
My prediction is that the Lakers fail to trade up or down because the teams around them are all trying to win now and the Lakers are a behemoth in the way. At 22, I predict them to select Jaden Springer, not because he’s a Draft Twitter darling, but because he fits their profile of guards and is a workout warrior. If they don’t pick Springer, I think they choose Miles McBride because he screams like a guy they would pick.
I also predict them to buy a second rounder. Toronto picks 46th and 47th. Both THT and Clarkson were picked 46th. I think Robinson-Earl, Edwards, and Boston (Klutch client) are legitimate possibilities. Boston had a rough freshman season despite coming in with top 10 hype. I don’t love him, but at 46th or 47th, that’s good value. It would be somewhat reminiscent of the THT pick.
So to recap, I think Jaden Springer and Brandon “BJ” Boston will be Lakers by the time draft night ends. Am I confident in this prediction? Not really, but as of writing this, I think that is the likeliest outcome in a bunch of unknown outcomes.