Anthony Davis' Shot Selection in His Return
In his first game back in 67 days, Anthony Davis played 17 minutes (all in the first half) versus the Dallas Mavericks and notched just 4 points on 2/10 shooting. While AD was moving well and looked good defensively, I want to hone in on the quality of his shot selection and what that means given the circumstances now and going forward. Let’s look at all 10 of his field goals and see what sticks out!
Q1;11:30; Face-Up Middy (Miss); 0/1
AD catches the ball on a clear-out. The spacing here is not optimal. Kyle Kuzma cuts to try and draw the defense in to create a pass-out to Dennis Schröder for 3 possible.
Watch how AD uses his jab step to create space to shoot over Dwight Powell.
While this is not an ideal shot, this is a nice, low effort, rhythm play for AD to try and shake off the rust. Just one simple jab step creates gets Powell to shift one way allowing AD to rise up for the shot. Given what is there, this was a nice move by Davis. He just needs to knock it down.
Q1; 10:26; Step-Back Middy (Miss); 0/2
Davis catches the ball at the same spot as the previous play but the opposite side of the floor. This time, AD has his back to the basket versus Powell. Schröder cuts strong side to create more of a clear-out like Kuz did on the previous play.
This is a bad shot by AD, but there is nothing there besides resetting up top to KCP with about 10 seconds left on the shot clock. The paint is crowded so there are no driving lanes. The best shot quality here is a step-back or a turnaround fadeaway.
However, it is good that AD is showing some of his vast arsenal here, which is what Kobe used to do early in games. Bean would give his defenders different looks to keep them guessing. Each move set up the other. AD is trying to establish his jumper early so he can utilize counters later.
Q1; 7:41; Triple Threat Face-Up Middy (Miss); 0/3
First off, look at the shot clock when AD catches the ball (6 seconds). Maybe AD could’ve tried driving to the rim and putting up his patented floater or drawing a foul going through Powell (I hope Dr. Seuss would like this rhyme), but there just is not much there.
Like I mentioned earlier, AD is trying to establish his jumper through simple, low energy moves. Also, attacking the rim is a high energy and stress play. He is still trying to ramp up his body in a step-by-step, piecemeal fashion.
Q1; 6:36; Rolling Layup (Miss); 0/4
This is a great, simple pick n’ roll. Schröder goes middle which means there is no one tagging AD’s roll to the rim. Dennis gives Davis a great bounce-pass and he either blows the layup or Willie Cauley-Stein gets a piece of it.
AD probably has to finish this, but he blows this because of the catch. He doesn’t fully secure the ball as he’s going up with it. This is probably due to not playing basketball for a long time and needing to get into rhythm. Dennis’ pass could’ve needed a little more force so it would bounce higher easier into AD’s catch radius. These are small nitpicks, but important details.
According to NBA.com, Schröder and Davis have shared the court in 665 minutes in just 24 games played together. There is still chemistry needed to be built there, so the minutia that may seem insignificant is actually pretty important. Like the gridiron, basketball is a game of inches.
Q1; 6:12; Floater Attacking Closeout (Miss); 0/5
Remember how I said AD was using his jumper to set up counters? Here AD has a clear spot-up at the right wing 3. Cauley-Stein is late on his closeout. Therefore, AD uses Cauley-Stein’s momentum against him and tries to drive by him but WCS does a good job recovering. AD misses a make-able floater, but it is good defense.
While I am okay with the process, AD has to take these open 3s. I get his jumper was cold to start the game (0/4 before this shot). The human element kicks in where you don’t trust your jumper yet, especially considering it’s the first game back in over two months. There are still kinks to work out.
Q1; 4:51; Step-Back Middy (Make); 1/6
This is the AD we know. He catches the ball on the left wing and just sizes up WCS to create space for the easy step-back. This is too easy.
An important note is that WCS is giving him space. Why? The last time he defended AD, the Brow almost drove right past him and the play before that, Davis got an easy layup that he blew. The threat to drive sets up the jumper. Each play sets up the other. This time, AD actually executes.
Q2; 11:40; Post Floater (Make); 2/7
This is a great way to get AD in rhythm: have him attack a smaller guy in the post. Dorian Finney-Smith gets switched onto AD after the roll. Schröder does a great job allowing Davis to repost and gets him the ball on a clear-out. After that, it’s too easy.
Like his jumpers, these are low effort and energy plays, good possessions to get AD’s body in rhythm. This is why Davis is such an alien: too big for smaller guys and too quick and skilled for bigger guys.
Q2; 8:25; Turnaround Post Floater (Miss); 2/8
Again, Davis gets another matchup in the mid-post where he’s defended by Finney-Smith who does a much better job this time. AD is forced into a wild shot even though he was right to attack the mismatch here.
This is a weakness in AD’s game sometimes: he can go up a little soft and not be as physical as we’d like (although his physicality is underrated). But, I think this is just the wrong move. AD loves the jab step and he isn’t convincing enough with any move before he dribbles here. The tiny jabs and straight line drive just do nothing to move DFS while AD is in a triple threat. He has to make some sort of ball fake or a more exaggerated jab step here to set something up.
Q2; 7:49; Spot Up 3 (Miss); 2/9
To add to the voiceover, shots like these are great for any player to find their rhythm, especially your superstar who has been out for an extended period of time. Yes, he missed but the process is good and good process leads to good results overall.
Q2; 1:06; Dribble Pull-Up (Miss); 2/10
I like this clear-out for AD against Kristaps Porzingis. KP is much taller so he sags off relying on his length. Davis brings the ball out to the perimeter to get more of a head of steam. He uses the lull of his dribble and the hesitation to freeze KP. Porzingis closes out okay, but Davis gets a nice look. Unfortunately, he just misses the jumper.
I would not characterize this as the best look, but AD got a nice rhythm jumper which is in line with the other shots he took. Despite a cold shooting night, he still decided to attack with his jumper when that’s what the defense gave him.
Conclusion
Anthony Davis went 1/5 on mid-range jumpers that were either off the dribble or out of a triple threat, 1/2 on post moves with both being floaters, 0/1 on a contested floater after attacking a closeout, 0/1 on a layup rolling to the rim after setting a pick, and 0/1 from 3 which was a wide open catch-and-shoot look.
Overall, I would say AD’s shot quality was fine. It wasn’t great or terrible but just okay. He mostly took what the defense gave him given the circumstances, but made some mistakes here and there.
The main takeaway is Davis is ramping up his play. He’s being cautious and charging his battery steadily so he doesn’t sustain another injury. He can’t just attack like a bat out of hell immediately. Considering the circumstances, I liked what I saw.
At the end of the day, this is just a one-game sample so this analysis was probably mostly a waste of time in terms of substance, but still fun to do. Looking forward to what he does against the Mavs again tonight!